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No Recession for U.S. as Forecasts Improve
By Rich Miller and Vivien Lou Chen - Oct 10, 2011 5:34 AM CT
A string of stronger-than-projected statistics -- capped by the news on Oct. 7 of a 103,000 rise in payrolls last month -- has prompted economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Macroeconomic Advisers LLC to raise their growth forecasts for third quarter growth to 2.5 percent from about 2 percent. That’s nearly double the second quarter’s 1.3 percent rate and would be the fastest growth in a year.
“The U.S. economy doesn’t look like it’s double-dipping at all,” said Allen Sinai, president of Decision Economics Inc. in New York. “But it is a crummy recovery.”
That recovery still faces what economist Chris Rupkey in New York calls “a lot of headwinds.” These range from the sovereign-debt crisis in the euro zone -- and increasing likelihood of a recession there -- to political gridlock in the U.S. over the budget.
“We can skirt a recession,” said Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. “But if headlines worsen in Europe and cause a major stock-market rout, it could lead to a loss of confidence here on the part of businesses and consumers and make forecasts for a recession a reality.”
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Isn't Goldman Sachs one of those "too big to fail" outfits that got billions of our money a while back? I would surely trust their opinions. Forecasts like this are just wishful thinking.
That 103,000 "new" jobs includes 47,000 striking union workers going back to work.
Europe is going to implode any day now. And America is inextricably tied into the global economy.
1933 might seem a fond memory of good times before we are done here.
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